The economy is hitting the fan...or is it?
A different post...but a much needed one
So you're probably like me. Driving around town, throwing up your arms, wondering where your econmic future is headed. Let me be honest with you. I'm scared. Yes. And for the first time in my life, I truly am not confident in our economy. I'm gonna lay down the facts for you right now regarding Hawaii's tourism industry, more-so the wedding industry. We've been hit hard. I drive down Waikiki these days and it's the summer, and it looks empty. I talk to a few of my friends who own shops in town, and they are hurting. Our government says that tourism is down 5% or so, it's a complete lie. It can't be down only 5%. ATA and Aloha airlines went out of business and airlines cut 20% of their flights to Hawaii in the last six months. Conservatively, I say tourism is at least down 30%, reastically, I say it's down 50%.
As far as the wedding industry is concerned, we're down about 50% as well. Lucikly, I'm one of the few businesses that are keeping their head above water, but there are many that are folding up and going home. But I'm scared because I can see what's around the corner...and it's not pretty. And the wedding business is a great barometer of what the future holds. Let me just spell it out for you, if brides don't want to spend money on their wedding, that's a big problem.
At the moment, it is an average of about 527 dollars for a RT from Los Angeles to Honolulu, and about $831 dollars from JFK (New York) to Honolulu in mid-september. These are extremely high prices for september. Usually, you can get about 250 dollars rt tickets from LAX to HNL, and 480 dollars, from JFK to HNL. Prices have literally gone up 100% regarding travel packages, and oil is currently at 147 dollars per barrel of oil. It oil hits 200 dollars per barrel, these prices will most likely double. We could be there tomorrow, we're only a hurricane away from that...another war conflict, another terrorist attack. If it's not tomorrow, we'll hit 200 dollars per barrel by the end of the year. The bottom line, It's getting too expensive to come to Hawaii to get married!!!
IT'S A PERFECT STORM...
THE HOUSING MARKET
The housing market is adding fire to the down turn in the economy. Banks and lending instiutions are going out of business. Contractors are going belly up, homes are being foreclosed on, investors are drying up. People are running out of money. People are who were heavily involved or associated with the real estate industry are becoming unemployed.
THE STOCK MARKET
It's crashing. Fannie Mae is worth 9 dollars. Fannie Mae!! I could never imagine Fannie Mae ever reaching single digit value. People are losing their 401K's. This is scary folks. See, when the internet bubble burst, I could understand that. These stocks were inflated, trading at 300 to 500 times their earnings..or no earnings...and there was no intrensic value to their stock. But these stocks that are going under, are truly not that bad. Money is fleeing good solid companies, and that's a problem.
U.S. CURRENCY IS GOING DOWN DOWN DOWN
Our U.S. Dollar is worth half of what it was two years ago. This is a major problem. This means that the world market, investors, don't feel as though the United States is a place to invest in. It also means that gas prices are twice as what they should be because the oil price per barrel is based on the U.S. Dollar.
INFLATION ALL-AROUND IS HIGH , WAGE ARE LOW.
I'm happy to report that I'm not contributing to this statistic, but everything is getting more expensive. It's not just gas. Everything. Corn, milk, eggs, everything. Everything is getting more expensive, but we're not getting richer.
PEOPLE ARE LOSING THEIR JOBS
GM just laid off more people today. Starbucks is closing down shops. Banks are going belly up. Is your job secure
THIS IS JUST FOR HAWAII...BUT THE STATE WILL START TO REQUIRE PERMITS FOR WEDDINGS
So this is great news, yeah right. The State of Hawaii will be requiring the need for permits to conduct commerical weddings on "State" beaches. This truly isn't a problem for me because my weddings happen on City and County beaches. But this is scary, because the state ultimately wants to limit the number of wedding that will happen on ALL beaches. Who gets these permits, who knows. It will practically ruin the wedding industry in Hawaii though...
SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE AND FOR ONCE, WE NEED THE GOVERNMENT TO TAKE THE LEAD....
I know this sounds funny, because I really don't care for the government. They can't do much right. But they better do something right...soon, or else we'll all be hurting. We need the government to stop playing politics, stop pointing the finger, and do something.
Harry Reid, senator from Las Vegas, and Obama, and many of his democratic friends say that we should not drill for more oil and focus on creating a new form of energy. But this doesn't make any sense to me. If we were back in the1900's and my horse carriage got a broken wheel, the solution would not be to invent the car. It would be to fix the wheel. Inventions are great, they are long term fixes...and god, I would love an electric car like the tesla motor car...but hey, I, like you, own a gas car. Everything is powered by gas. Lets fix the gas problem...geez. And as far as drilling goes. Drill...drill everywhere! Obama, like many of the democrats don't understand that gas companies will lease acres of land, and only use 1% of this land because there's no oil there in most of the leased areas.. There's no gaurantee that there's oil on the land that they lease. They, the democrats blame the speculators for the oil prices. Yes, that's true. But speculation will also bring prices down. Drilling for oil, may only bring prices down by 10 cents or pennies per gallon. But that's not the point. Speculation, is done on pennies. When companies beat earning estimate, they beat it by pennies, and the stocks dramatically rise or fall on those penny estimates. Stocks trade 10 to 2o to 300 times earnings...same goes for oil. A penny rise or fall, will go a long ways.
I know this post is really off base.... BUT IT'S ACTUALLY NOT. This really does concern a romantic wedding. This does concern my company, and your possible wedding in Hawaii in a few years. If nothing is done, my business may not be here. Hawaii's economy will be trashed. You may not have enough money or a job in the future. The is serious stuff
Lets get by all this rhetoric. I was talking to my friend the other day, and all he could say is that "This is George Bush's fault." Okay...fine, if it is..it is. I asked him, "Okay..so now what?" Nothing. He had no solution. Just someone to blame. Then he blurted out "Iraq war was for oil..." Geez...I wish it was. Start pumping.... now... But we're not getting a drop from Iraq.
Look, George Bush, is an oil guy...he knows about oil. He predicted what is happening when he first took office. Congress held it up. The Democrats held it up. Enviromentalist held it up in the name of global warming. What did he want to do?
- Drill for more oil in Anwar, off of florida, everywhere.
- build more refineries
- create coal ethanol
- build more nuclear power plants
- create one federal epa standard for fuel
Obama, the democrats, want none of that...they dont' want this because they fear that man will make the earth warmer, and we can't survive in a warmer climate. And they still are preaching this. They don't want any of the above...they want to reinvent the wheel...and that would take years. By the time that happens, it'll be too expensive to fly to Hawaii. But they are fine with making you poorer in the name of making the planet cooler... You may even lose your job in the process, but not to worry, Obama wants to create "green" jobs..... seesh...
What's the point? Who you vote for the end of this year, could determine if you get married in Hawaii. Obama takes office, I promise you...it'll be too expensive for you to come to Hawaii. Prepare for the 2000 dollar ticket to Hawaii. McCain, has at least somewhat of a plan to drill, nuke power, and to cut gas taxes. Everything hinges on gas right now. Everything.
Obama, democrats, don't want to do any of this because they "care" about the enviroment. Yes, Obama, Al Gore, who have 30,000 times the carbon footprint of us, pollute more than us, don't even follow what they preach. They say it's okay because they pay "carbon credits" which offsets their footprint. What it really means is that if you're rich enough, you can pollute. Hypocrites. Know who you'll be voting for. Know the man behind the rhetoric and what and how he'll truly affect the economy and the wedding industry in a negative way.
What I can only hope for is this. We drill, we refine more, we get nuclear in our energy. We create a great electric car meanwhile...we do solar, we do wind... we do it all, and we do it soon, or else, we won't see any weddings in Hawaii's future.




2 Comments:
At 8:02 PM,
Shelly Foust said…
Nice post Steve! I couldn't agree with you more. Being in business to business sales on the island, I agree with you 100%. I hear the same thing from business owners daily. Umm... one last comment. You'd better still be in business this October 11th:)
At 3:07 AM,
l said…
Hi Steve,
I just wish if nobody else looks out for Hawaii-GOD will,
because I'm planning to get to marry there and to move there too.
Keep up the good,honest work,
Marita
Ps.
I hope my photos on Waialae beach will mirror the tropical feel of Blue Hawaii.(I will try to ignore the condo)
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